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McCarthy’s ‘No Win’ Shutdown Scenario_我的网站

佩小姐的奇幻城堡

一 | 本文来自微信公众号：娱乐硬糖（ID：yuleyingtang），作者：李春晖从黄渤讲述自己的阿尔茨海默症基因，到叶童回应自己的白头发；从李想自我剖析如何走出最大人生低谷，到陶喆坦言自己的巡演从无人投资到一票难求。访谈节目的复兴绝对是2025年最值得注意的娱乐现象乃至文化现象。以新浪新闻出品的《热浪之外》2025为例，不论是李想、黄渤，还是陶喆、张子枫，登上节目的嘉宾几乎都坦诚披露了自己的人生B面，也由此引发了广泛的共鸣：节目播出至今斩获全网热搜超70次，抖音、视频号、小红书单平台播放量均破千万，同时登顶B站热门播客榜榜首。

With pressure mounting to avert a government shutdown, heightened by culture war demands from House conservatives burned by previous brawls, the House speaker faces a difficult decision – risk a shutdown or risk the gavel.

That was 2015. But 2023 is treading a similar course.

For former House Speaker John Boehner, it was the final chapter in a lengthy standoff with House conservatives that contributed to his resignation from Congress after 25 years and almost five in the top job. For current House Speaker Kevin McCarthy, just seven months into his tenure, the outcome remains an open question.

With a looming deadline to fund the government and much left to be accomplished upon Congress’ return from recess, McCarthy and other congressional leaders expressed willingness earlier this month to pass a stop-gap measure to keep the government funded, buying lawmakers more time to work out the 12 appropriations bills they’ve been pursuing. But demands from the House Freedom Caucus have complicated the effort and put McCarthy in yet another bind from the right that analysts say could be the one to put his leadership position on the line.

“This is now the most important fight he faces as speaker and the choice between kind of the campaigning arm, the House Freedom Caucus arm, and the actual governing arm of keeping a government running,” says Casey Burgat, the director of the Legislative Affairs Program at George Washington University’s Graduate School of Political Management.

McCarthy has walked a fine line with the conservatives since the speaker battle, when they took him 15 grueling rounds before granting him his win, and in turn gained the power to bring up a vote for his ouster, lowering the threshold to just a single lawmaker.

So when the House Freedom Caucus announced it would oppose a stop-gap measure to keep the government funded unless certain conservative provisions are includes – like addressing DOJ "weaponization" and ending "woke" Pentagon policies – it prompted a confrontation with McCarthy that’s been brewing and bubbling in fits and starts for months, ready to boil over.

Such legislation would lose support among House Democrats and face steep odds in the Democrat-controlled Senate, making a shutdown likely. But without the support of conservatives on a clean continuing resolution and only a few votes to spare in the GOP narrow majority, McCarthy will likely need to rely on Democrats to approve a stop-gap measure – a move sure to provoke the hard-liners in his caucus.

“This is where his choice comes in,” Burgat says. “If he takes Democratic support, which likely he'll need to do, then that opens himself up to at least a motion to vacate because it only takes one now.”

The contours of the standoff were previewed during the debate over the debt ceiling, as House conservatives demanded controversial spending cuts and policies that put McCarthy in a difficult negotiating position with Democrats and the White House. Ultimately, Democratic votes on the debt ceiling agreement outnumbered Republicans in the House in a turn of events that infuriated some members of the House Freedom Caucus.

That same small but vocal minority – numbering in the mid-30s out of 222 Republicans in the chamber, though the caucus doesn’t publicize the exact number – made their frustration known just days later, when they blocked a routine vote, sending the chamber into a week-long gridlock. At the chamber’s reunification, McCarthy told reporters they had agreed to “sit down and talk more” in future spending negotiations. And shortly after, Republican appropriators agreed to mark up the 12 spending bills well below the levels agreed to in the debt ceiling deal in what appeared to be a major concession made to the House Freedom Caucus that has colored the funding process so far.

But this time, emboldened by the shortcomings in the last fiscal battle, they may come out with a greater show of force, as McCarthy faces what political science professor Rob Mellen Jr. calls a “no win situation.”

“I think this might be the fight they're willing to go to the mat for,” says Mellen, of the University of South Florida. “That this time if he really doesn't feel like he's going to compromise with them and give them what they want, that they may be willing to just say, ‘Hey, we'll shut this down. We'll go that direction, and we'll remove you if you go to the Democrats.’”

Members of the Freedom Caucus have for months suggested that they would be willing to let the government shut down if they don’t agree with the funding package. Indeed, for the conservatives, who largely hail from safe districts, there isn’t much to lose, as analysts note that if the government shuts down and Republicans are blamed, the conservatives won’t be on the chopping block like their colleagues in swing districts.

But some have noted that for the Freedom Caucus, perhaps armed with the understanding that their demands have little chance of becoming reality, the ultimate goal may be McCarthy’s removal after all.

“It just puts McCarthy in this bind and sort of forces his hand almost to do what he did before, which is get the government funded with Democratic votes, and in so doing, they can respond by triggering a call for his removal,” says David C. Barker, professor of government and director of the Center for Congressional and Presidential Studies at American University. “And I think that's what they're agitating toward. That's what they want. That's kind of what they wanted from the beginning. And they've been looking for a mechanism to do it. And I think maybe all along they've planned on this being the one.”

True to form, Rep. Ronny Jackson of Texas didn’t mince words about McCarthy’s dilemma with the Freedom Caucus last week, calling a motion to oust McCarthy “inevitable” if he continues to rely on Democrats.

“McCarthy’s going to have to listen to the people on the right or else he’s going to have to rely on the Democrats to pass this,” Jackson said on Steve Bannon’s “War Room” podcast. “But I’m telling you if that happens, I mean, it’s going to be detrimental to leadership in the House if they blow off the concerns of the people like myself and Freedom Caucus and some of the other people on the right that are making reasonable demands in this process – it’s going to be a problem.”

Whether McCarthy can rely on Democrats to back a CR is one thing. But whether they’ll protect his gavel is another matter altogether.

Some dynamics suggest at least some Democrats would come to his aid, like reports of a coalition of Democrats offering McCarthy a deal during the debt ceiling fight that they would help him keep his job should he responsibly raise the debt ceiling. Another calculation for Democrats is McCarthy’s possible replacement, who likely wouldn’t align more closely with their positions, making McCarthy’s retention arguably in Democrats' best interest.

But even if McCarthy survives a motion for his ouster with the help of Democrats or calls conservatives’ bluff and his speakership isn’t ultimately threatened, analysts say his hold on the conference will remain shaky and his ability to get things done stunted.

“He can only afford to lose four. And if there's 40 that are just mad at him all the time, then they're going to be reluctant to support him even if it's on things that they want to,” Burgat says. “They've proven willing to shut down the chamber even when it's run by their own party. And so, as much as he'll defang them on this one vote, he'll need them again for any Republican priorities to be passed out of the House heading into an election year.”

It’s a dynamic that haunted Boehner for years and ultimately contributed to his early departure. And the House Freedom Caucus has only grown bigger and more brash, releasing statements and listing demands publicly, while McCarthy’s margin is just a fraction of what the former speaker’s was in 2015.

“McCarthy is closer to being one of them than Boehner ever was,” Barker says. “Boehner really was more of a traditional Chamber of Commerce-type of Republican whereas McCarthy stylistically and policy-wise for some time now has been a MAGA-friendly flame thrower right in line with them. He certainly was during the Trump years. And so, you know, it just shows their willingness to eat their own.”

Unlike McCarthy, Boehner was already on his way out, planning to resign months later, when he made the decision to step down. Even then, he noted that had he not been planning to leave, he wouldn’t have done so when talk of a motion to vacate began swirling.

“It was never about the vote. There was never any doubt about whether I could survive a vote, but I don’t want my members to have to go through this, and I certainly don’t want the institution to go through this, especially when I knew I was thinking about walking out the door anyway,” he told reporters at the time.

When asked what advice he would give to McCarthy, then his presumed successor, he urged the California Republican to protect the institution. And when questioned by another reporter about whether the next speaker would ultimately face the same fate, he earnestly replied.

。有热搜人物，有生活情境，有直面问题，《热浪之外》激发出了更真实的反应与更深刻的体悟。当李想说站在对方的角度，自己也能理解背叛者时，鲁豫追问：“我为什么要站在他的角度呢？”李想不假思索地回答，“因为不站在他的角度，伤害的是你自己啊。站在他的角度，你不就和自己和解了吗。” 遇见具体的人生和具体的道理一具体就深刻。碎片时代更需要深度访谈，让人们看到具体的人是怎样的，各种道理又是如何在具体情境中发挥作用的，最隐秘的伤痛又是将如何疗愈与和解的。在这方面，《热浪之外》可以说既做出了“新闻”的本质，也彰显了“新浪”的品牌。

二 | 正是在这个基础上，黄渤在《热浪之外》吐露的遭遇激发了全网老中青的共鸣。

三 | 黄渤父母都患有阿尔兹海默症，对于失智失能的恐惧长久笼罩着看似乐天的黄渤。这是比年龄焦虑更加终极的、每个人都无法逃脱的宿命恐慌，而黄渤让人看到了最真实的焦虑、努力与认命。仿佛处身于某种倒计时中，黄渤更加积极地体验着各种新东西，演戏、唱歌、跳舞、当导演、录综艺、做雕塑……享受着“半瓶子晃荡”的美妙状态，说着“好不容易活这一回，想做的事情，赶快都试试”。而观众一下明白了黄渤为什么做《忘不了餐厅》，并深深记住了黄渤的豁达以对：“过程的丰富性才是人生本身，如果只在一条直线上走，会比较无趣。” 如果说黄渤展示了人要如何去面对必然的天命，李想则以企业家的理性回顾了人如何去面对变幻的人事。

四 | 李想将2008年视为自己的人生分水岭。这一年金融危机爆发，汽车之家资金链断裂，几个小股东试图把李想赶出公司。而其中的发起者，正是当年和李想一起创业、一起租房、“在一张床上睡觉”的兄弟。

五 | 李想和鲁豫由此展开了一场关于“背叛”的对话。“换位思考是为了跟自己和解，要减少对自己的伤害。”李想总结。放轻松，是一种很新的访谈 40岁后选择“不装了”的李想，不想活成别人期待的样子，那谁又是他期待中“自己的样子”呢？当被鲁豫问及如果拍《李想传》想让谁演自己，李想战术性喝水后回答，“易烊千玺。” 所以咯，为何大家又爱看访谈了，因为现在的访谈体验太综合了。像《热浪之外》这样的新一代访谈节目，整体都更加轻灵。出品方新浪新闻不仅发挥了自己一贯的策划力、内容力、突破力，也展示了访谈的全新打开方式。首先是场景创新让受访者更容易打开，观看体验也轻松愉快，近似真人秀。鲁豫和张子枫一起逛古着店互相挑衣服。有人说酒品即人品，那女生就是逛街见真章。张子枫说自己买了不敢穿，鲁豫马上说，“我必须要鼓励你穿自己想穿的，不要有任何的障碍。” 事实上，《热浪之外》正是采取了全新的叙事方式。

六 | 人物的传记微电影、深度访谈、慢综艺叠加，让观众能看到一个人的过去未来、所思所想与当下处境。今年是访谈大年，各大平台各种形式的访谈节目层出不穷，视频播客甚至成为小风口。

七 | 相较于内容较为原生散漫的视频播客，《热浪之外》的高内容密度显然更符合大众观看习惯。而更强的新闻属性与平民视角，也让其比文化类访谈多了一层人情温度与社会关怀。人年轻的时候爱看小说，有点阅历了就容易转向传记。好的访谈很像传记，都是他者视角+本人亲历去展示选择与成败。某种意义上，整个社会都进入了一种熟龄心态，让我们去需求这样的访谈，在喧哗之中、在热浪之外，去更开放的人生里寻找非标准答案。

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